2026年FIFA世界杯半决赛的首场比赛定于美国达拉斯的阿灵顿体育场举行，由欧洲排名最高的两支球队——法国队与西班牙队对决 [1]。比赛的核心看点集中在两位顶级球星基利安·姆巴佩与拉明·亚马尔的较量上 [1]。
根据Opta超级计算机的预测数据，法国队在常规时间内获胜的概率为42.1%，略高于西班牙队的31.8%；若进入加时赛，双方的胜率分别为26.1%和其余概率 [1]。在历史交锋记录方面，两队曾交手38次，其中西班牙队以18胜占据优势，法国队取得13胜，双方战平7场 [1]。最近一次相遇发生在2025年欧国联半决赛中，当时西班牙队以5比4战胜法国队 [1]。
在个人数据方面，姆巴佩目前拥有8个进球和3次助攻的战绩 [1]。
The opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals will take place in Dallas at Arlington Stadium [1]. The fixture features a clash between two European powerhouses, France and Spain [1]. Match statistics indicate that Kylian Mbappé has recorded eight goals and three assists for his team [1]. In their recent head-to-head encounter during the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinal, Spain defeated France with a score of 5-4 [1]. Historical data shows the two sides have met 38 times previously, resulting in 18 wins for Spain, 13 for France, and seven draws [1]. According to Opta's supercomputer predictions, France has a 42.1% probability of winning within regular time [1], compared to 31.8% for Spain [1]. The model also assigns a 26.1% chance for the match going into extra time [1].