本周全球经济焦点集中在通胀、住房市场及能源供应上。国际货币基金组织（IMF）因伊朗战争引发的能源冲击下调了 2026 年全球经济增长预期至 3%，同时上调美国增长预期 [1]。具体而言，IMF 将 2026 年全球经济增长预期从 3.1% 下调至 3%，主要归因于伊朗战争造成的能源冲击 [1]。该组织预测美国 2026 年经济增长为 2.3%，而欧元区仅为 0.9% [1]。
在美国国内，住房市场呈现分化态势：房价创历史新高，但新房销售放缓。截至报告发布时，美国中位房价同比上涨 1.8% 至 440,600 美元，创下有记录以来的新高 [1]。与此同时，二手房销售表现疲软，6 月二手房销售年化率降至 409 万套，低于预期的 421 万套 [1]。
美联储内部对利率走向存在显著分歧。会议纪要显示，在参会的 18 名政策制定者中，半数支持年底前加息，另一半则支持维持不变或降息 [1]。此外，美国就业市场保持相对稳定：截至 7 月 4 日当周，初请失业金人数降至 21.5 万人；6 月非农新增就业为 5.7 万人 [1]。
在能源领域，受战争影响全球石油需求预计下滑。国际能源署（IEA）预计 2026 年全球石油需求将下降 100 万桶/日，这是疫情以来首次出现下滑 [1]。
Global economic attention this week focused on inflation trends, the housing market, and energy supply. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3% from a previous estimate of 3.1%, citing an energy shock triggered by war in Iran [1]. Conversely, the IMF raised its projection for US economic growth to 2.3% for next year, while forecasting only 0.9% expansion for the eurozone [1].
In the United States housing market, median home prices rose 1.8% year-over-year to reach a record high of $440,600 [1]. However, new construction activity slowed as existing-home sales annualized in June fell to 4 million units from an expected 4.21 million [1].
Divergence remains within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy; meeting minutes indicate that half of the 18 policymakers support raising rates before year-end, while the other half favor holding steady or cutting rates [1]. Meanwhile, labor market data shows initial jobless claims dropped to 215,000 for the week ending July 4, though June nonfarm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs [1].
On the energy front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand in 2026 to decline by one million barrels per day, marking the first drop since the pandemic began [1].