自7月7日以来，没有载重超过10,000吨的船只开启自动识别系统（AIS）信号通过霍尔木兹海峡南部航道 [1]。周三仅有5艘船只被追踪到穿越该海峡，而周一的数量为45艘，战前日均通行量约为130艘 [1]。随着美国和伊朗恢复战斗，这一关键水道的航运几乎陷入停滞，大型船舶的通过率急剧下降 [1]。
尽管面临供应中断的风险，布伦特原油价格目前保持相对稳定，报每桶76.37美元，较周四结算价基本持平，但较周三下跌约2% [1]。分析师警告称，夏季库存减少可能导致油价进一步上涨 [1]。TD Securities大宗商品策略全球主管Bart Melek预测，布伦特原油价格在夏季可能上涨10至15美元 [1]。与此同时，受地缘政治紧张局势影响，亚洲股市开盘普遍走高：东京日经225指数早盘上涨1.9%，韩国Kospi指数上涨3.6%，香港恒生指数上涨1.4% [1]。
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a standstill following renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran. Since July 7, no vessel exceeding 10,000 deadweight tons carrying an active AIS signal has transited the southern channel [1]. On Wednesday alone, only five ships were tracked crossing the strait, compared with 45 on Monday and a pre-war average of approximately 130 vessels per day [1].
Despite these severe disruptions to supply routes, Brent crude prices remained relatively stable at $76.37 per barrel, showing little change from Thursday's settlement price but falling by about 2% from Wednesday's levels [1]. Analysts warn that summer inventory drawdowns could drive oil prices higher in the coming months; Bart Melek, global head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, predicts Brent crude may rise another $10 to $15 during the summer season [1]. Meanwhile, Asian stock markets opened broadly higher amid geopolitical tensions: Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index rose 1.9% in early trading, South Korea's Kospi climbed 3.6%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 1.4% [1].