美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）预测，正在发展的厄尔尼诺现象有 81% 的概率在秋季达到“非常强”级别 [1]。该事件可能成为自 1950 年有记录以来最强烈的厄尔尼诺之一 [1]。太平洋关键区域的海温目前处于或接近历史同期最高水平，叠加了人为气候变化导致的基础海温升高背景 [1]。气象学家 Emily Becker 称这一现象“非常极端，虽非史无前例但极不寻常”[1]。气候科学家 Zack Labe 预测，强厄尔尼诺可能在未来 6 至 12 个月内推高新的全球气候记录 [1]。
受此影响，预计美国南部冬季将比正常年份更湿润 [1]，而北部及加拿大地区气温将偏高 [1]。此外，科罗拉多州立大学大幅下调了对大西洋飓风季节风暴数量的预测，认为活动水平将“远低于正常水平”[1]。
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an 81% probability that the developing El Niño phenomenon will reach a "very strong" intensity this autumn, potentially ranking among the strongest events on record since observations began in 1950 [1]. Meteorologists note that Pacific sea surface temperatures are currently at or near historical highs for this time of year [1]. This intensification occurs against a backdrop of elevated ocean temperatures driven by anthropogenic climate change, which experts say will have profound global impacts [1].
Emily Becker described the situation as "very extreme," noting it is not unprecedented but remains highly unusual [1]. Climate scientist Zack Labe added that such a strong El Niño could push new global climate records within the next six to 12 months [1]. Weather patterns are expected to shift significantly, with the US South facing increased rainfall during winter while northern regions and Canada anticipate warmer-than-average temperatures [1]. Conversely, activity in Atlantic hurricanes is projected to be well below normal levels for this season [1].