最新公布的美联储会议纪要表明，联邦储备委员会内部在判断未来美国通胀走势上意见高度分裂 [1]。尽管部分官员认为随着伊朗局势缓和以及关税效应消退，通胀将趋于降温，但许多人担忧人工智能基础设施建设将持续推高半导体和电力价格，从而维持通胀高位 [1]。
会议记录显示，美联储 19 名官员中，有许多人支持在年底前将利率维持在 3.6% 或略低水平，而另一些人则主张更高的利率 [1]。根据 6 月 17 日会议后发布的预测数据，提交数据的 18 名政策制定者中，一半支持在年底前加息，另一半支持维持不变或降息 [1]。新任主席凯文·沃什未提交相关预测，他认为这样做会将政策制定者锁定在特定路径上 [1]。
宏观数据显示了通胀压力的现实存在：美国 5 月通胀率升至 4.2%，为三年来的高点；纽约联储数据则显示消费者一年期通胀预期已升至 3.7%[1]。会议纪要进一步指出，对 AI 基础设施的强劲需求可能会持续推高科技产品和电力价格 [1]。
Minutes from the Federal Reserve released recently reveal a sharp division among officials regarding the future trajectory of U.S. inflation [1]. While some policymakers anticipate that easing tensions in Iran and fading tariff effects will help cool prices, many others express concern that robust demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure will continue to drive up semiconductor and electricity costs, thereby sustaining high inflation levels [1].
Regarding interest rate policy at a meeting held after June 17, forecasts submitted by 18 of the policymakers showed an even split: half supported raising rates before year-end, while the other half favored holding them steady or cutting them [1]. Among these officials, many advocated for keeping rates near 3.6% or slightly lower prior to December, whereas others argued for higher rates [1]. New Chair Kevin Walsh did not submit a forecast, stating that doing so would lock policymakers into a specific path [1].
Inflation data underscores the urgency of this debate; U.S. inflation rose to 4.2% in May, marking its highest level in three years [1]. Concurrently, one-year consumer inflation expectations climbed to 3.7%, according to New York Fed data [1].